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Title: | Marshall-lerner yaklaşımı çerçevesinde reel döviz kuru ve ticaret dengesi arasındaki ilişki: Kuram ve Türkiye örneği |
Other Titles: | The real exchange rate and trade balance relationship between under the confideration of marshall-lerner condition: Theory and apliciation Turkey |
Authors: | Peker, Osman Aksu, Mehtap |
Keywords: | Ekonometri Econometrics Ödemeler dengesi Devalüasyon Döviz kuru Eşbütünleme analizi Marshall- Lerner Sartı Balance of Trade Devaluation The Marshall – Lerner Condition Exchange Rate Cointegration Analysis |
Issue Date: | 1-Jan-2007 |
Publisher: | Adnan Menderes Üniversitesi |
Abstract: | Literatürde döviz kuru degiskenligiyle ticaret dengesi arasındaki iliski Marshall- Lerner kosulu yardımıyla incelenmektedir. Marshall-Lerner kosulunda devalüasyonun ticaret dengesini iyilestirmesi için ithalat talebinin fiyat esnekligi ile ihracat talebinin fiyat esnekligi toplamının birden büyük olması gerekir. Bu çalısmada döviz kuru degiskenligi ile ticaret dengesi arasındaki iliski Türkiye ekonomisinde 1950?2006 dönemi için ampirik olarak test edilmistir. Esbütünlesme ve hata düzeltme analizinden elde edilen ampirik sonuçlar ısıgında, uzun ve kısa dönemde devalüasyonun ticaret dengesini iyilestirdigi, dolayısıyla Marshall- Lerner kosulunun saglandıgı görülmüstür. Hata düzeltme modelinden elde edilen sonuçlara göre; J ?egrisinin kısa dönemde ticaret dengesi üzerindeki etkisine iliskin herhangi bir kanıt bulunamamıstır In the literature, relationships between balance of trade and variability of exchange rates were analyzed by estimating the Marshall ? Lerner condition. According to the Marshall-Lerner, the sum of the price elasticity of demand for imports and price elasticity of demand for exports should be higher then 1 in order to expect a curative effect of devaluation on foreign trade balance. In this study, the relationships between balance of trade and variability of exchange rates were analyzed empirically in Turkish economy for 1950-2006 periods. In the light of empirical results which were found by estimating cointegration and error correction analyses, it has been shown that devaluations help improving the trade balance in the short and long run and Marshall- Lerner condition were provided. According to error correction model, did not find any evidence for the presence of the J-Curve effect on the balance of trade in the short run |
URI: | http://194.27.38.21/web/catalog/info.php?idx=32916427&idt=1 http://hdl.handle.net/11607/178 |
Appears in Collections: | Yüksek Lisans |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
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Mehtap_AKSU_İngilizce Özet.pdf | 14.52 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open | |
Mehtap_AKSU_Özet.pdf | 32.24 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open | |
Mehtap_AKSU_Tez.pdf | 660.74 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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